01Chiefs ML
+11%NFL · FanDuel
72% model · 61% market
Chance is how often it should hit. Value is how far the price sits from that. They are not the same list.
02Dodgers ML
+6%MLB · FanDuel
70% model · 64% market
03October Fed cut
+9%Macro · Kalshi
67% model · 58% market
04Bills ML
+7%NFL · FanDuel
64% model · 57% market
05Mahomes 275+ pass yds
+8%NFL · FanDuel
61% model · 53% market
06Goff 2+ pass TD
+6%NFL · Betr
60% model · 54% market
07Allen 2+ pass TD
+7%NFL · Betr
58% model · 51% market
The model would pass
Negative or tiny gaps. Listed so the board is not a tout sheet.
Packers +3.5
-6%NFL · FanDuel
48% model · 54% market
Lions ML
-5%NFL · FanDuel
55% model · 60% market
Sutton anytime TD
-5%NFL · FanDuel
22% model · 27% market