Market vs model

Educational analytics. No wagers and no orders.

NFL · FanDuel · Detroit at Green Bay

Lions ML

Market

60%

FinBets model

55%

Edge

-5%

Payout

+67%

-150

Verdict

No Edge

FADE

Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.

Edge score

39

Expected value

FinBets model55%
Market implied60%

Why the model disagrees

  • Form

    Mixed

    Detroit has been the better team recently. The price already knows.

  • Location

    Cuts against

    Lambeau is the check. The model will not pay 60% to be there.

  • Tickets

    Cuts against

    Public money is on Detroit. The number got shorter than the model allows.

Line path

−165 → −150 · implied chance rose

Public on this side
67%
Liquidity
Deep · 80

Sharp flow has been on the other side of this price.

What could change the number

  • Starting lineup change
  • Injury update
  • Sharp line movement
  • Weather shift
  • Unexpected player availability
Open the game file

Sample price from FanDuel. Not a bet slip.