NFL · Betr · Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Allen 2+ pass TD
Market
51%
FinBets model
58%
Edge
+7%
Payout
+96%
-104
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.
Edge score
63
Expected value
FinBets model58%
Market implied51%
Why the model disagrees
Recent rates
Supports
Allen has multiple passing scores in four of the last five.
Rushing
Cuts against
He can vulture a short score on the ground, which steals a pass TD.
Weather
Mixed
Wind is high enough to matter, but not enough to scrap the passing script.
QB · Buffalo
Josh Allen
Pass TD · line 1.5 · last five
Line path
+105 → −104 · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 60%
- Liquidity
- Tradable · 68
Sharp flow has leaned the same way as the model.
What could change the number
- Starting lineup change
- Injury update
- Sharp line movement
- Weather shift
- Unexpected player availability
Open the game file
Sample price from Betr. Not a bet slip.