Macro · Kalshi · FOMC rate decision
October Fed cut
Market
58%
FinBets model
67%
Edge
+9%
Payout
+72%
-138
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. Low risk.
Edge score
74
Expected value
FinBets model67%
Market implied58%
Why the model disagrees
Recent prints
Supports
Inflation and labor samples in this slate still leave room for a cut.
Path
Supports
The contract is pricing a more hesitant committee than the model’s reaction function.
Liquidity
Supports
The book is deep enough that the 58¢ print is a real price, not a stray quote.
Line path
54¢ → 58¢ · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 61%
- Liquidity
- Deep · 84
Sharp flow has leaned the same way as the model.
What could change the number
- A new data print
- Speaker or schedule change
- Sharp contract flow
- Liquidity leaving the book