72% model · 61% market · signal BET
The score multiplies FinBets leg probabilities, adjusts when legs share a game, then compares that with the market’s implied parlay price.
PARLAY SCORE
38/100
- Model
- 6.4%
- Market
- 5.6%
- Edge
- +0.8%
Legs in the same game pull against each other, so the joint chance is lower than a straight multiply.
REMOVE THIS LEG
Sutton anytime TD
It costs more probability than it adds in price. Dropping it moves the model from 6.4% to 33.8% and the score from 38 to 80.
Legs
67% model · 58% market · signal BET
70% model · 64% market · signal LEAN
22% model · 27% market · signal FADE
How the score is built
Each leg uses the FinBets probability, not the market’s. Those chances are multiplied. If two legs are the same side of one game, the joint chance is nudged up. If they need opposite things, it is nudged down. The market number is the product of the implied prices, shaded about 3% per extra leg because parlay prices are usually worse than the raw multiply.