NFL · FanDuel · Kansas City at Denver
Sutton anytime TD
Market
27%
FinBets model
22%
Edge
-5%
Payout
+270%
+270
Verdict
No Edge
Model signal, not an order. High risk.
Edge score
27
Expected value
FinBets model22%
Market implied27%
Why the model disagrees
Usage
Cuts against
Target share is fine. Red-zone looks in the last five games are not.
Price
Cuts against
The contract shortened to +270. The model’s hit rate is 22%, below the price.
Correlation
Cuts against
This needs Denver scoring. It fights a Chiefs moneyline in the same game.
WR · Denver
Courtland Sutton
Anytime TD · line Yes · last five
Line path
+310 → +270 · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 52%
- Liquidity
- Thin · 42
Sharp flow has been on the other side of this price.
What could change the number
- Starting lineup change
- Injury update
- Sharp line movement
- Weather shift
- Unexpected player availability