NFL · FanDuel · Kansas City at Denver
Mahomes 275+ pass yds
Market
53%
FinBets model
61%
Edge
+8%
Payout
+89%
-113
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.
Edge score
66
Expected value
FinBets model61%
Market implied53%
Why the model disagrees
Recent volume
Supports
Four of the last five outings cleared 275. The miss came in a blowout script.
Matchup
Supports
Denver has allowed quarterbacks to work the intermediate middle.
Script
Cuts against
If Kansas City leads early, designed runs can cap the yardage.
QB · Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes
Pass yards · line 275.5 · last five
Line path
−105 → −113 · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 58%
- Liquidity
- Tradable · 74
No clear sharp tell in the sample.
What could change the number
- Starting lineup change
- Injury update
- Sharp line movement
- Weather shift
- Unexpected player availability
Open the game file
Sample price from FanDuel. Not a bet slip.