NFL · FanDuel · Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Bills ML
Market
57%
FinBets model
64%
Edge
+7%
Payout
+75%
-133
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. Low risk.
Edge score
71
Expected value
FinBets model64%
Market implied57%
Why the model disagrees
Recent performance
Supports
Buffalo’s last four weeks grade ahead of Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball.
Rest
Supports
The Bills have an extra day. Pittsburgh is on a short week.
Home field
Cuts against
Pittsburgh is at home. That is the main check against Buffalo.
Injuries
Supports
A Steelers starting tackle is questionable. Snap share is not settled.
Market
Supports
Price moved from −108 to −132, and it still trails the model.
Line path
−108 → −132 · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 71%
- Liquidity
- Deep · 92
Sharp flow has leaned the same way as the model.
What could change the number
- Starting lineup change
- Injury update
- Sharp line movement
- Weather shift
- Unexpected player availability
Open the game file
Sample price from FanDuel. Not a bet slip.