Market vs model

Educational analytics. No wagers and no orders.

NFL · FanDuel · Detroit at Green Bay

Packers +3.5

Market

54%

FinBets model

48%

Edge

-6%

Payout

+85%

-117

Verdict

No Edge

FADE

Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.

Edge score

37

Expected value

FinBets model48%
Market implied54%

Why the model disagrees

  • Number

    Cuts against

    The model’s cover rate sits under the price. Getting points is not free value.

  • Similar spots

    Cuts against

    Home dogs in this profile have not outrun a 54% price.

Line path

−120 → −117 · implied chance rose

Public on this side
41%
Liquidity
Tradable · 79

Sharp flow has been on the other side of this price.

What could change the number

  • Starting lineup change
  • Injury update
  • Sharp line movement
  • Weather shift
  • Unexpected player availability
Open the game file

Sample price from FanDuel. Not a bet slip.