Market vs model

Educational analytics. No wagers and no orders.

NFL · FanDuel · Buffalo at Pittsburgh

BUF–PIT under 43.5

Market

46%

FinBets model

55%

Edge

+9%

Payout

+117%

+117

Verdict

Strong Value

BET

Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.

Edge score

68

Expected value

FinBets model55%
Market implied46%

Why the model disagrees

  • Weather

    Supports

    Wind at 14 mph and light rain lean toward fewer clean drives.

  • Pace

    Supports

    Pittsburgh’s recent games have lived under this number more often than over.

  • Price

    Supports

    The under is plus money. The model only needs a modest lean to like the price.

Line path

−102 → +117 · implied chance fell

Public on this side
48%
Liquidity
Tradable · 77

Sharp flow has leaned the same way as the model.

What could change the number

  • Starting lineup change
  • Injury update
  • Sharp line movement
  • Weather shift
  • Unexpected player availability
Open the game file

Sample price from FanDuel. Not a bet slip.