NFL · FanDuel · Kansas City at Denver
Chiefs −3.5
Market
51%
FinBets model
54%
Edge
+3%
Payout
+96%
-104
Verdict
Lean
Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.
Edge score
57
Expected value
FinBets model54%
Market implied51%
Why the model disagrees
Margin
Mixed
The model likes Kansas City to win more than it likes them to cover 3.5.
Price
Cuts against
A three-point edge is inside the noise. This is a pass, not a lean.
Line path
−108 → −104 · implied chance fell
- Public on this side
- 63%
- Liquidity
- Deep · 88
No clear sharp tell in the sample.
What could change the number
- Starting lineup change
- Injury update
- Sharp line movement
- Weather shift
- Unexpected player availability
Open the game file
Sample price from FanDuel. Not a bet slip.