Politics · Polymarket · November control
Senate flips
Market
33%
FinBets model
41%
Edge
+8%
Payout
+203%
+203
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. High risk.
Edge score
57
Expected value
FinBets model41%
Market implied33%
Why the model disagrees
Map
Supports
The model’s seat map is a bit more competitive than the contract price.
Uncertainty
Cuts against
One late race can swing control. That keeps the risk score high.
Liquidity
Mixed
Tradable, not deep. A single order still moves the print.
Line path
29¢ → 33¢ · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 57%
- Liquidity
- Tradable · 69
No clear sharp tell in the sample.
What could change the number
- Polling shift
- Candidate news
- Liquidity shock
- Rules or calendar change