Macro · Polymarket · NBER call this year
Recession in 2026
Market
18%
FinBets model
27%
Edge
+9%
Payout
+456%
+456
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. High risk.
Edge score
58
Expected value
FinBets model27%
Market implied18%
Why the model disagrees
Activity
Mixed
Growth is slower in the sample, not stalled. 27% is not a base case.
Price
Supports
18¢ is cheap relative to that 27% path. The payout does the work.
Definition
Cuts against
An official call can lag the economy. Timing risk is the whole bet.
Line path
15¢ → 18¢ · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 39%
- Liquidity
- Tradable · 62
No clear sharp tell in the sample.
What could change the number
- A new data print
- Speaker or schedule change
- Sharp contract flow
- Liquidity leaving the book