Macro · Kalshi · October inflation print
CPI under 2.6%
Market
32%
FinBets model
46%
Edge
+14%
Payout
+213%
+213
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. Moderate risk.
Edge score
78
Expected value
FinBets model46%
Market implied32%
Why the model disagrees
Components
Supports
Shelter is still sticky, but goods and energy in this sample are soft.
Base effects
Supports
The year-ago comparison is friendly to a 2-handle print.
Price
Supports
32¢ implies a much colder print than the model’s distribution.
Line path
27¢ → 32¢ · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 44%
- Liquidity
- Tradable · 71
Sharp flow has leaned the same way as the model.
What could change the number
- A new data print
- Speaker or schedule change
- Sharp contract flow
- Liquidity leaving the book