Crypto · Kalshi · Friday settlement
BTC above $75k Friday
Market
29%
FinBets model
38%
Edge
+9%
Payout
+245%
+245
Verdict
Strong Value
Model signal, not an order. High risk.
Edge score
58
Expected value
FinBets model38%
Market implied29%
Why the model disagrees
Path
Supports
Realized volatility still reaches $75k often enough to beat 29¢.
Positioning
Cuts against
Public interest is high and sharp flow has been selling the rip.
Risk
Mixed
This is a wide distribution. The edge is real and the miss rate is large.
Line path
24¢ → 29¢ · implied chance rose
- Public on this side
- 66%
- Liquidity
- Tradable · 58
Sharp flow has been on the other side of this price.
What could change the number
- Spot volatility
- Macro headline
- Weekend gap into Friday
- Thin book